Monday, November 15, 2010

73 Global warming, think holocaust

73 Global warming, think holocaust
1. Introduction
2. What has global warming to do with the holocaust.
3. Wherefrom the sense of urgency
4. Which kind of action we need
5. What You can, or better, have to do.

1. Introduction.

In recent weeks I had several discussions with environmentally minded people about global warming. I was stunned by the lack of knowledge, and therefore lack of sense of urgency about action to be taken, and which action to be taken.

That is why, to get the real sense of urgency, I advise people to think about the holocaust. Because through the holocaust, you get the sense of urgency we are facing, and you get a sense of the kind of actions that need to be taken.

(For those who don't know, the holocaust is until now the largest by humans caused catastrophic crime mankind ever witnessed. About 70 years ago, millions of Jews and East Europeans, and thousands of homosexuals and political opponents, apart from others, were killed in Europe through gas poisoning, starvation, hard labour or mass executions. If we are not capable of stopping global warming on time, the holocaust will be referred to as the second worst catastrophic crime in human history).

What has global warming to do with the holocaust, You might ask

2. What has that got to do with the holocaust.

a. The holocaust was, just like the global warming, an announced crime. Global warming is a crime, because it will cause (and already causes) the dead of millions of people, it will turn the lives of hundreds of millions of people into pure misery, whiles it is man made and avoidable. The recent flooding in Pakistan that turned 14 million people into beggars and the forest fires in Russia , are some of the disasters that were announced years ago as a consequence of the ongoing global warming. Since we are now at a warming of + 0.8 °C, You can get a sense of what will happen at more than 2.0 ° C, like the power networks want to make us swallow.

b. The same power networks that crippled German society to fend off the threat of the announced holocaust, are now crippling an effective reaction to the global warming threat. These power networks are consisted of business men, politicians and media tycoons, and everybody that is depending on them for their economic well being (scientists, judges, artists, government employees, ...). These power networks cripple independent scientific research (critical scientists risk to loose their jobs or funding) , critical journalism (critical journalists don't get a job or risk to loose it), and political grass root activism (even peaceful political actions are turned into criminal acts by law). Many people think, politicians don't take such risks, they are smart, just like business men and scientists. History proves them wrong. Politicians take risks, and scientists often keep quiet. Everybody in Germany, and in the rest of the world, was thinking, that what was happening in Germany, was not going to be all that bad. Most people being part of the power networks (business men, scientists, artists,...) kept quiet. But it became worse than they ever expected, and many cooperated, becoming thus criminals themselves. Or just a recent example from the United States of America. Scientists warned long time about the hurricane risk (extremely heavy storm) for New Orleans. Still politicians were not taking action. The result was thousands of deaths and a massive destruction after hurricane Katrina.

c. The same way the highly concentrated (meaning, owned by a few businessmen) entertainment industry (music, film), created and stimulated a sense of normality among Germans whiles at the same time the most gruesome crimes were committed in their backyards, nowadays the entertainment industry creates that same sense of normality. Global warming is still presented as a boxing match between believers and non believers, whiles the scientific debate has long time finished. And when you hear some bad news, the next moment you can watch your favourite show or film, or listen to some nice music, as if nothing is going on, as if nothing has happened.

3. Wherefrom the sense of urgency ? - Tipping point within 6 years, we are facing catastrophe.

Like you can read on the website from onehundredmonths dot org, the International Panel on Climate Change (or IPCC, an organisation created by the United Nations to study global warming) put forward a certain concentration of greenhouse gasses (these are the gasses that cause the global warming) at which there is a 66 to 90 % chance that the rise of global temperature will stabilise at 02 ° C. This figure is also used as a target by the European Union. Once this temperature exceeded we risk uncontrollable and catastrophic warming. Using the conservative models from this United Nations organization, onehundredmonths dot org calculated at which moment we will reach that tipping point. This moment we will reach within 73 months, meaning within 6 years, which is incredible soon.
As onehundredmonths dot org points out, there are several problems with the modelling from the IPCC .
First of all the chance calculation. 66 to 90 % chance. How can you, as a politician, take such a figure as a political target. How can you take one chance on three, or even one chance on ten, that things will go terribly wrong. This is an incredible high risk, no insurance company would ever cover. With the future of hundreds of millions of people at stake, we can only choose for the no risk option, which is available !
Another problem is that the models and figures from the IPCC are already outdated. Even at a mean temperature rise of 02 ° C, the Greenland Ice Sheet could melt, and cause a see level rise of about 7 meters, which will let countries as the Netherlands, Bangladesh, Florida, huge chunks of Africa and South America disappear in the floods. There is absolutely no certainty that that will take thousands of years, like the IPCC states.
A real blow was the publication of The World Energy Outlook 2010 on 09 November 2010 by the International Energy Agency. They themselves critical about the lack of action to reduce CO2 emissions, predict an increase of co2 emissions by 2035, which is an absolute horror scenario.

4. Which kind of action we need.

Here I come back to what happened with the holocaust. The holocaust was a major challenge to human civilization. In order to stop it, Germany had to be beaten in a war, called World War 2. In a war rules change. The whole society puts itself at service to reach the target, beating the enemy. Factories are rebuilt to supply the troops with the weapons they need, if necessary food is rationed, the government is making debts, if necessary property is confiscated...
The same accounts for the situation we are facing now. The life of millions and the life quality of hundreds of millions of people is at stake. We really need radical action.

First of all, the 2 ° C scenario bears to many risks. Governments have to choose a zero risc scenario (1.5 ° C for example), and put everything at work in order to achieve that goal. Everything has to be put at work to stabilise green house gasses concentration within this and 6 years. If scientific data suggest that even these levels of green house gasses concentration are to risky, then more ambitious targets and plans have to be put in place.

Many books have been written about the actions to take, we will just cite some :

We have to invest massively in isolation, energy efficiency, energy saving, renewable energy sources, waste prevention, reduced meat consumption, transport revolution ... In order to do so, if necessary we have to rebuilt factories, change our lifestyles. Absolute priority has to be given to greenhouse gasses reduction. If necessary we will have to ration green house gasses output. Big building projects, like construction of new roads and bridges, which consume huge amounts of capital, have to be postponed. Confiscation, debt-financing, tax financing should be contemplated. This is a millennium challenge, which needs millennium solutions, investments and financing.

5. What you have to do.

Don't stand at the sideline, telling yourself, that you have done your best in your private co2 reduction, and you cannot do more, the rest is to the society to fish it out. You are making it yourself to easy. Whiles individual action is one of the conditions for change, it is only through coordinated action together with people who think the same way as you do, that will bring change to society. Jesus Christ and Mohamed didn't just sit in their room to live according to their rules, but went out, and looked for people, convinced them, and spread together with them the good news. Adolf Hitler didn't turn Germany into a racist dictatorship by writing a book in his room, but he looked for people, convinced them, and together with them conquered power. As I said, when you think about global warming, think about holocaust. We just have a few years to prevent major catastrophe. We need everybody to engage him/herself in this heroic struggle. This is a struggle that sets everything else aside. Make action groups, within your town, your school, your company, your political party. You are already engaged in other projects, and don't have time ? If you would have to fight the holocaust right now, would you also say : "hmmm, i am already in the animal rights movement, so i don't have time ?", or "hmmm, i am already in the women's rights movement, so i don't have time" ??? No, you couldn't. There are some struggles that go beyond everything else. This is such one. We need You, now ! 73 months to go !. (source : onehundredmonths dot org).

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